Shaping the Future Together

CHCCS receives approximately $7,500 in state funding for every student enrolled in the district. If there are fewer students, then the district receives less in state funding. Our most recent projection has CHCCS down 341 students in 2026-27, which means an approximate loss of $2.6 million in state funding.

There are no immediate changes in any schools or offices. In October, November and December of 2025 CHCCS worked to communicate this information across a broad range of district leadership, school staff, families, students and community groups. Our goal is to create a shared understanding of the trends and the decisions we’ll have to make in the near future.

It’s not a crisis, it’s a crossroads. As of January 2026, CHCCS district administration is collecting information and developing short-term, transitional and long-term options to manage the district’s budget.

There are no changes expected during the current school year. However, with approximately 85% of the district’s budget dedicated to personnel (salaries and matching benefits), changes to our staffing at the central office and school levels will have to at least be considered. Programs will also be reviewed over time to ensure our students are receiving the best possible outcomes.

That is not yet an option being considered. However, as the CHCCS administration gathers more information, we expect that this may be an option. Please note that there would be ample opportunities for staff, family and student involvement in such major decisions.

No. Aging schools must still be replaced, and we are working to do so over the next 8-10 years. The bond funding approved by voters in November 2024 is not impacted by the district’s current student enrollment figures.

This is not yet determined (as of January 2026), mostly because we want to take a big picture approach, think creatively and strive for excellence. We’ll do that by working together, communicating effectively, and involving our staff, students and families along the way. Expect continued updates on this topic throughout the Winter and Spring of 2026.

Enrollment Trends and Next Steps

This message from Superintendent Rodney Trice is for all staff and families: 

Last night, our Board of Education got an update on what CHCCS student enrollment might look like over the next ten years. The exact numbers are still early estimates, but I wanted to share some of the big takeaways with you:

• Since the 2019-20 school year, our student enrollment has been going down, especially in the early grades like Kindergarten, 1st and 2nd.
• We’re also seeing birth rates decline in our district, which means fewer school-age children living here than in years past.
• More students are going to charter schools, private schools or homeschool.
• As a result, almost all CHCCS schools are projected to be underenrolled over the next 5-10 years.
• As enrollment declines, CHCCS will experience a systemic shift in its financial foundation, driven by sustained reductions in state funding.

Here’s how I look at it: This is our reality. It’s not a crisis, it’s a crossroads. And we will get ahead of it by working together to become a smaller, stronger and more innovative CHCCS.

So how will we do that?

Currently, my team and I are collecting information and developing short-term, transitional and long-term options to responsibly manage the district’s budget. After that, I expect our Board of Education will offer more direction, including chances for staff, family and student involvement, much like the meetings that many of you attended over the past month.

In the meantime, you can stay up to date by checking out the same information the Board reviewed last night:

• Presentation slides: Carolina Demography student enrollment forecast
• Video: Presentation and discussion with CHCCS Board of Education and administration (YouTube)
• Presentation slides: CHCCS five-year financial outlook and strategic budget levers

Big challenges like this call for a big-picture approach. Together, we’ll think creatively, strive for excellence and continue to educate the next generation at a very high level. I’ll keep you posted every step of the way.

Sincerely,

Rodney

Look Back: Community Meetings about Enrollment Trends

• December 2 at Smith Middle School (YouTube)
• December 1 at Culbreth Middle School (YouTube)
• November 19 at Smith Middle School (YouTube)
• November 17 at Phillips Middle School (YouTube)
• Presentation slides (PDF)
• One-page handout with the key takeaways and talking points (PDF)

Enrollment Trends and Next Steps

This message from Superintendent Rodney Trice is for all staff and families:

This week we completed our series of four community meetings about the changing student enrollment trends we face here in Chapel Hill and Carrboro. As I said each night, this was not the end of a conversation, but rather a beginning.

So what’s next?

Next Thursday, December 11, our Board of Education has a retreat, which is less formal than the Board’s usual meetings. The Board will address several topics, including: 

• “Academic Return on Investment” framework.
• Updated review of our local demographics and enrollment projections. 

That night, I expect the Board will provide direction to me and my administration on the variety of proposals we should prepare to best use our financial resources and personnel as a smaller, stronger and more innovative CHCCS. The retreat is open to the public, and anyone is welcome to attend. Scroll down for more details.

On another note, my thanks go out to all staff, students and families whose patience and understanding helped us get through the first “winter weather” event of the season (yeah, I know it was just cold rain here for us.) We’ll still hold out hope for at least one “snow day” someday soon 😉

Sincerely,

Rodney

Board of Education Retreat

• When: Thursday, Dec. 11, 5-8 p.m.
• Where: Lincoln Center (750 S. Merritt Mill Rd., Chapel Hill)
• Who: Open to the public. Please note that anyone is welcome to attend and watch in person, but the retreat will not be livestreamed.
• More information coming soon: The agenda will appear on this page early next week.

Community Meetings about Enrollment Trends

• December 2 at Smith Middle School (YouTube link)
• December 1 at Culbreth Middle School (YouTube Link)
• November 19 at Smith Middle School (YouTube link)
• November 17 at Phillips Middle School (YouTube link)
• Presentation slides (PDF)

One-page handout with the key takeaways and talking points

Let’s talk about CHCCS enrollment trends and what’s next

This message from Superintendent Rodney Trice is for all CHCCS families and staff:

I hope you’ll join me at one of several upcoming talks about our most recent enrollment and demographic trends, and what they mean for our district’s future.

As I recently shared with the Board of Education, our student enrollment numbers are changing, with projections showing a potential $2.1 million reduction in state funding for the 2026-27 school year. While that presents some real challenges, it also gives us a chance to reimagine how we operate as a smaller, more agile and financially sustainable district.

I’ll talk about where we are now, what it means for our schools and central services, and how we can move forward together with transparency, inclusion and strategic decision-making at the center of our work.

What: “Shaping the Future Together: Reimagining CHCCS in a Time of Change”. A talk with Superintendent Rodney Trice

When: 

• Monday, Nov. 17, 6:30-7:30 p.m., Phillips Middle School Auditorium (606 N. Estes Drive)
• Wednesday, Nov. 19, 6:30-7:30 p.m., Smith Middle School Auditorium (9201 Seawell School Road)
• Monday, Dec. 1, 6:30-7:30 p.m., Culbreth Middle School Auditorium (225 Culbreth Road)
• Tuesday, Dec. 2: 6:30-7:30 p.m., Smith Middle School Auditorium (9201 Seawell School Road)

Spanish interpretation will be available at each session.

Please come to the session that’s most convenient for you. Each of the four evenings will cover the same material and allow time for discussion. If you’re unable to join in-person, we’ll livestream each session, and recordings will appear on our district YouTube channel. 

• For a clear and concise preview of the major trends we’ll discuss, I recommend this three-minute recap video of a presentation that Carolina Demography gave to our Board back in October 2024.
• Note for CHCCS staff: These in-person talks will cover the same material as the virtual meetings on November 4.

We’re not making decisions right now. Rather, we’re building a shared understanding of the trends headed our way. So please come out and join me. I’m looking forward to connecting with you, answering questions, and sharing how we’ll move together in the months ahead. 

Sincerely,

Rodney